Posts Tagged ‘projections’

FWIW: Survey finds ad execs more optimistic

Monday, November 30th, 2009

“[A]d spending sentiment is now improving for every medium tracked, even for some traditional media such as newspapers, magazines and broadcast, which continue to have an overall negative index,” says Media Daily News in a report about a new survey.

Ad executives’ optimism for increased advertising budgets “has risen to its highest point in two years, and is now at pre-recessionary levels,” the report says. “The study, which is based on an index of executives who plan to boost their ad spending over the next 12 months vs. those who plan to decrease it, currently stands at a positive difference of four percentage points, the highest level since the fall of 2007, when the index stood at positive eight percentage points.”

Update: AdAge has a more thorough report.

Political ads to offer little for newspapers

Thursday, October 22nd, 2009

Political advertising in 2010 is projected in a Wells Fargo report to increase by 11 percent over 2008, with TV and direct mail getting nearly nine out of every 10 dollars spent, according to Editor & Publisher.

Next year brings us the election of 37 governors, 38 senators, every member of the House of Representatives, and issue advertising (which could approach $1 billion) on hot-button issues such as health care.

Broadcast TV will reap the lion’s share at $2.2 billion or 67 percent of the total, with $2 billion going to local TV, $150 million to cable and $50 million to network TV,” E&P says. “Direct mail will get $650 million or 20 percent of the ad spend, followed by radio at $250 million or 8 percent, and newspaper at $95 million or 3 percent. Outdoor and the Internet are forecast to reach $55 million and $50 million, respectively.”

At least one newspaper publisher has attributed part of its 3Q ad revenue decline to “the absence of Olympic [that's TV advertising] and political ads that fattened results a year ago.”

Online advertising may be in recovery mode

Wednesday, October 21st, 2009

Citing Google’s most recent report and analysts who agree, the Associated Press says online advertising is poised for a rebound. Meanwhile, Business Week says “Yahoo’s results and its forecast for current-quarter sales beat analysts’ expectations and gave further evidence that this year’s swoon in Internet advertising may be ending.”

“The signs of an online revival are emerging even while advertising in print and broadcasts remain in a slump that has triggered mass layoffs, pay cuts and other upheaval,” the AP report says. It goes on to cite newspaper publishers McClatchy and Gannett, both of which showed huge falloffs in print ad revenues in their third-quarter reports but upticks in their online revenue.

“The harsh reality is that much of the advertising in long-established media, particularly in the classified sections of newspapers, will never rebound to pre-recession levels, said Lauren Rich Fine, a longtime media analyst who is now a professor at Kent State University.”

“… These trends will give Internet advertising 19 percent, or nearly $87 billion, of the worldwide ad market in 2013, up from just 4 percent, or about $18 billion, in 2004, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers and Wilkofsky Gruen Associates.”

That would make the Internet the third-largest marketing medium behind television and, believe it or not, newspapers.

Hope for ad spending almost alive

Monday, October 19th, 2009

AdAge sees prospects for a tepid advertising recovery in recent announcements of Google profits and spending plans by the Gap, plus the performance of the Dow. “(T)here’s an almost tangible hope that the advertising and media sectors are no longer treading water, but crawling gingerly onto muddy shores,” the magazine says.

And, “Now, today comes a report from ZenithOptimedia that global ad spending should increase 0.5 percent in 2010. Meager, yes, but after so much sputtering of ad spending and cost cutting at media companies, that tiny blip is being taken as cause for relief. … Meanwhile, ad buyers are reporting that TV ’scatter’ advertising, or ad inventory bought close to air time, is more robust.”

But — of course there’s a but — “there’s a palpable sense that things could come crashing down anew. Some analysts believe the stock market has gotten ahead of itself and that many seemingly robust earnings from companies are largely the result of comparisons to worse earlier quarters or cost-cutting rather than from business flowing strongly once again.

“So while no one is ready to hold a party, there’s a growing sense that ad spending is haltingly stabilizing — or at least sucking less than before.”

Newspaper execs spin as Rome burns

Thursday, September 10th, 2009

Douglas Page, “an experienced media executive” writing for Newspapers & Technology, calls “BS” on newspaper publishers’ spin about revenues and profits.

“For a trade that prides itself on uncovering graft and crime and finding truth and justice, the pronouncements made by leading executives at publicly held newspaper companies — as well as some of the reporting covering those projections — are disturbing. They spin reality in a way that might make even the most ardent Party member blush,” Page writes.

Page uses as one example the Associated Press reports about McClatchy’s 2nd quarter profits, quoting CEO Gary Pruitt, who said: “We continue to restructure and permanently reduce expenses to better align our costs with our revenues.”

“In other words,” says Page, “some McClatchy employees took one for the team so it could make a profit — and someone’s next!

“The doozy, however, was the way McClatchy reported its online revenues:

‘Our digital advertising is down 2.9 percent in the second quarter of 2009, hurt particularly by declining employment advertising,’ Pruitt said. ‘Excluding employment advertising … our online advertising grew 24.7 percent in the second quarter of this year.’

“Can you really exclude an integral part of your revenue stream just so you look good?”

Newspaper executives are now preparing their 2010 budgets and glossing over how this year’s cutbacks will adversely affect the hoped-for recovery next year, Page says.

“(T)he true story is that the remaining employees’ workload, especially those on the sales side, will grow exponentially. They’ll be expected to hit their departed colleagues’ revenue targets.

“Tragically, they’re being positioned to fail. And with that will come — can you guess it? — more cuts.”

Cuts alone won’t sustain newspapers

Thursday, August 20th, 2009

The Wall Street Journal says that despite gains from cutting expenses, the prognosis for newspapers “remains troubled.”

Reporter Martin Peers ticks off the now-familiar savings moves – layoffs, pay freezes or cuts, shrunken newsprint and ink costs as advertising supports fewer pages – and says it all could work out if advertising stabilized. “But, … it is probably safer to bet that newspaper advertising will remain under long-term pressure.

“All this argues for avoiding newspaper companies with heavy debt loads, where the margin for error is still thin. That group includes McClatchy and Lee.”

Other publishers, like Gannett, E.W. Scripps and A.H. Belo, have healthier balance sheets, Peers adds.

Update: Ryan Chittum at the Columbia Journalism Review says inflation-adjusted numbers show papers are even worse off than you think.

Flickering light ahead for local TV

Wednesday, August 19th, 2009

Revenue for television stations, most of which is from advertising, will grow 5.2 percent to $18.5 billion in 2010, thanks in part to political advertising and the Olympics, says the L.A. Times’ Company Town blog, quoting industry research firm SNL Kagan. Local TV stations are also collecting more money from cable re-broadcast fees.

But in the long run, the Times says, they’ll need to counter falling revenue as programs and viewers move online by developing their own programs and by exploiting digital-spectrum channels.

Newspaper ads to rebound in ‘10

Monday, August 3rd, 2009

One analyst says newspapers will find their niche and rebound next year, with an ad revenue gain of 2.4 percent to $36.8 billion in 2010.

Bloomberg says a report from Borrell Associates Inc. has the optimistic outlook. The projection runs against estimates from other researchers, including Magna Global, which said last month ad revenue for newspapers would fall 9.3 percent in 2010.

“We’re expecting U.S. newspapers to see a decline in 2009, then a mild rebound over the next five years,” Borrell says on its Web site. “Our latest projections call for a 2.4% increase in newspaper advertising in 2010, and low single-digit increases for several more years.”

“Borrell sees ‘newspapers redefining their products and maintaining a strong marketplace niche,’ President Colby Atwood said in a report, according to Bloomberg. ‘Larger papers will continue to experience layoffs, abbreviated publication schedules and outright closures.’